ATW Daily News

IATA: Signs of 'upturn' but fuel prices, 'capacity overhang' threaten yields

Friday October 2, 2009

IATA reported yesterday that investors "looked more favorably" at airlines in September "as signs emerged of an upturn in this highly cyclical industry," but it reiterated that the worldwide industry is on pace for an $11 billion full-year loss.

In its latest Airlines Financial Monitor released yesterday, the organization noted that oil and jet fuel prices were $10 per barrel higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter and $14 per barrel higher in the third quarter than in the year's first half. "This rise in fuel costs will be a significant offset to any bottom line benefits from improved traffic volumes," it said.

Worldwide seasonally adjusted passenger km. flown were up 3% over the second quarter in the first two months of the third quarter, IATA pointed out, adding that the "upturn has been driven by the recent rise in economic growth following the massive government and central bank stimulus packages. Forecasters are getting more positive on Q4 but it is still not clear whether economic recovery will continue to strengthen or fizzle out in 2010."

It reported that passenger load factors rose "sharply [in August and September] and are now higher than in the previous two years." But it noted that while "better load factors mean better profit," that may be mitigated because aircraft "are not being flown as intensively." For example, average hr. flown by 747s and 777s are down 2%-3%, raising unit costs.

IATA said that since the end of the first quarter, more than 100 aircraft have been taken out of storage, "only just exceeded by retirements." With more than 480 aircraft delivered, the worldwide fleet is now 2% larger compared to the end of the first quarter. "Since capacity. . .has remained flat that means average aircraft hours have fallen a further 2% or so during the period, offsetting some of the bottom line benefits of higher load factors and building up a potential capacity overhang to threaten yields in the months ahead," it warned.

by Aaron Karp

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