ATW Daily News

Bernstein Research sees further 787 delays, bigger range shortfall

Monday May 4, 2009

Boeing's 787 customers face delivery delays of up to an additional six months, according to a report issued Friday by New York-based Bernstein Research that also suggest a 10%-15% range shortfall for early delivery aircraft.

The May 1 client report, a wrapup after Boeing's 787 certification briefing on April 29 (ATWOnline, April 30), is Bernstein's sixth reassessment of 787 production and forecasts that the manufacturer will not reach its target production rate of 10 aircraft per month until mid-2013, six months later than the latest target (ATWOnline, Feb. 9).

Bernstein warned that it is "not comfortable with assuming that [Boeing] will achieve its goal of making first delivery in Q1 2010 to All Nippon Airways, and even less comfortable assuming a production rate of 10 per month by the end of 2012," and has thus "stretched the time from first flight to the target production rate by an additional six months, with production rates reaching six per month at the end of 2012 and reaching 10 per month in mid-2013." At its April 29 briefing, Boeing reiterated its plan to fly the 787 by June 30.

The report also expressed concern about the effect on production rates of the redesign required to address weight issues. Bernstein said it understands from customer and supplier discussions that the first production 787s are likely to be roughly 8% overweight, with range 10%-15% less than promised. "That will translate into a range near 6,900 nm., well below the promised 7,700-8,200 nm. range," it claimed.

"These values are worse than for most development programs and suggest that substantial redesign work will be necessary. . .but the Tier 1 suppliers have not yet validated their production capacities with the new production technology, and if substantial redesign is needed to reduce weight, it will further complicate a rapid increase in delivery rates," the report added.

In more bad news Bernstein cast doubt on the ambitious certification timeline for the 787, which it termed "challenging." It warned that the program involves substantial changes in materials, systems and manufacturing technology, creating many opportunities for surprises to emerge during the test program. "There will also be the challenge of getting all six aircraft ready for testing as planned," it said. Boeing was unable to respond to the report by publication deadline.

by Geoffrey Thomas

Other headlines: